Understanding Factors Associated with Dangerous Fires and Repeat Arson

Firesetting results in death, injuries, financial, environmental, and community harm in Aotearoa New Zealand every year. Due to minimal research on risk factors and correlates associated with repeat and dangerous firesetting, clinicians lack appropriate guidance on effective assessment and intervention strategies with this population, hampering prevention efforts. This study explored characteristics associated with one-time versus repeat, and high versus low dangerousness firesetting in Aotearoa New Zealand. Court records of adults convicted of fire-related offences between 2017-2021 (n = 328; 79% male, 21% female) were reviewed and coded for key social, behavioural, offence, and psychological characteristics. Univariate tests suggested repeat firesetting adults were significantly more likely than one-time firesetting adults to have previous convictions for fire-related offences, target vegetation or bins/skips, and being motivated by the need to elicit an emotional response in themselves. One-time firesetting adults were significantly more likely to have previous convictions for motoring offences and to target an (ex-)partner, or whānau member. In a regression model controlling for all other factors, the variables with the strongest unique association with repeat firesetting were the target being vegetation, the target being a bin/skip, and being motivated by the need to elicit an emotional response in oneself. High and low dangerousness firesetting could be differentiated on few variables, however high dangerousness firesetting was significantly associated with structural targets, and low dangerousness firesetting was significantly associated with vehicle targets. No association was found between repeat firesetting and level of dangerousness. These findings suggest it is important to consider target, motivation, and previous criminal history when assessing repeat and dangerous firesetting. However, more research is needed to understand the full range of risk factors for this behaviour.