The Conceptualisation of Risk and Protective Factors in Child Sex Offenders: A Preliminary Theoretical Model

The current preoccupation of criminal justice practitioners and policy makers with the prediction of criminal risk has resulted in a conceptualisation of risk as clusters of phenomena that correlate with recidivism. A reliance on these phenomena as explanations for the causes of sexual offending is a mistake. The growing gap between theory and practice highlights the need for theoretical models that can account for the existence and influence of risk-related factors. Two key issues that need to be addressed concern the composite nature of dynamic risk factors, and questions over their ontological status, that is, whether or not they exist outside of prediction contexts. This thesis begins with an exploration and reconceptualisation of the phenomena that increase and decrease risk of sexual offending; the focus is then widened to include human agency, motivation, and values. These normative features are integrated with risk-related factors within the action-based Agency Model of Risk (AMR). This dynamic, interactional model highlights the importance of the relationship between the agent and their context, with both contributing to the patterns of behaviour that lead to an offence. Finally the AMR is applied to a number of risk domains for sexual offenders, and its utility in explaining their behaviour is discussed. The aim of this thesis is to encourage a broader focus on human values, agency, and contexts that influence an individual’s goal-directed behaviour.