The Complexity of Balance in Antarctica: Science and Nature in Antarctica’s Dry Valleys, 1903 to 2022

<p><strong>This research explores, empirically and theoretically, the concept of balance in Antarctic governance from the perspective of social-ecological systems.</strong></p><p>The interests of science and nature in Antarctica have been explicitly linked since the adoption of the Protocol on Environmental Protection to the Antarctic Treaty in 1991. The relationship between scientific research and ecological protection has been conceptualised primarily in two ways, as ‘scientific gains versus environmental impacts’ (a trade-off between conflicting interests) and as a ‘balance’ (an ideal goal). However, neither relational model has clear governance criteria and their dynamics are unknown.</p><p>Here, I explore the relationship between indicators of scientific gain and ecological impact across the greater McMurdo Dry Valleys region, Antarctica’s largest ice-free area, between 1903 and 2022. Three new datasets are used as empirical indicators of scientific gain and ecological impact. Spatiotemporal patterns are explored using exploratory spatial data analysis. Dynamics are explored using two agent-based models developed using the Social-Ecological Action Situations framework, theory of planned behaviour, and Python, focussing on 1) processes generating empirical patterns, and 2) the influence of information flow on researchers’ attitudes. The constrained empirical focus on the Dry Valleys is contextualised and theorised using models of balance drawn from literature more broadly.</p><p>Results show an imbalance between scientific and ecological variables across various levels and dimensions. Overall, indicators are positively correlated (annually) with high variability. Spatially, fieldwork activity is concentrated in ice-free areas. Scientific activity is dominated by the natural sciences and the United States, with disciplinary affinities for land cover type. Key factors affecting process dynamics are properties of the researcher population and research project funding success rates. Increasing researchers’ information flow reduces fieldwork activity overall. However, this is strongly influenced by group norm weighting. I argue that the concept of balance, typically used as a metaphor in governance, is better understood as a singular two-dimensional metamodel in social-ecological systems as it inherently encompasses two key linked governance challenges: equality (a component-level concern) and stability (a system-level concern).</p><p>This research provides a new spatiotemporal record of human activity for the greater Dry Valleys region and addresses the under-representation of Antarctica in the field of social-ecological systems research. Empirically, it questions the basis of ‘scientific gains versus environmental impacts’ claims. More broadly, it theorises a model of balance in social-ecological systems which seeks clarity of political and ethical settings linked to system stability, which is applicable to governance in global commons. This model of balance has relevance to Antarctic governance where there are concerns of mismatches between stated and embraced values, processes failing to address ongoing challenges, and where institutional legitimacy of the Antarctic Treaty System is questioned.</p>