Management of Risks to Egypt’s Water Supply due to the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam: A Multi-Perspective Study Using a Multi-Framing Approach

Egypt depends on the Nile River to secure 98% of the water it needs for different purposes. About 96% of this water originates outside Egyptian territory. Ethiopia alone is the source of 86% of the Nile’s water. In 2011, Ethiopia announced the construction of a new dam, called the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) at the headwaters of the Nile. The construction of the GERD will have many consequences and risks for Egypt, whose livelihood currently depends on the Nile’s water. The perceptions of these risks differ dramatically depending on the adopted perspective in studying them. Studies to date have analysed these risks by using one or two perspectives at a time, leading to limited assessments of this conflict. In addition, these studies did not take into consideration many other aspects and many other impacts that could affect the situation and outcomes. However, in Egypt’s critical situation and surrounding circumstances, many perspectives must be adopted to gain a better understanding of the nature of these risks. The purpose of this research is to study risks to Egypt’s water supply in general and the Egyptian agricultural sector in particular, because of the GERD’s construction and operation. This study achieves its aims by using different perspectives, frameworks, and tools to understand the nature of the studied risks; identify the root causes; evaluate expected risks; understand how to control, alleviate, and mitigate them; and address the implications for Egypt in general, and for Egypt’s agricultural sector in particular. The Egyptian agricultural sector is expected to be one of the most affected sectors since 70% of the Egyptian share of the Nile is consumed by agricultural activities. This research focuses on studying the risks to that sector because of its significant impact on Egypt.

This study utilises different perspectives and multiple lenses of complementary analytical frameworks. These perspectives include the historical, legal, risk, and Theory of Constraints (TOC) perspectives, while the frames include historical, legal, probability-impact matrix (PIM), decision trees, decision tables, and a suite of TOC frames. This research adopts a mixed approach, quantitative and qualitative, using literature as well as primary data obtained through interviews at the international and national levels to reveal and evaluate the real situation.

In the context of this study, the first two frameworks used shed light on the historical and legal nature of the Egyptian-Ethiopian dispute. These two frames provide an evaluation of the past and current situation to build on for the future. Both frames use a literature review approach to explain their perspectives in the form of descriptive analysis. The other analytical frames use primary data obtained by interviews in a prescriptive analysis. These interviews give voice to different international experts and Egyptian stakeholders. PIM, decision trees, and decision tables frames use primary data from international interviews. PIM frame assesses the expected probabilities and severity of positive and negative risks due to the GERD on Egypt to classify and prioritise these risks. Decision trees and decision tables frames evaluate and compare the Egyptians’ decision alternatives based on different scenarios and suggest new decision alternatives. The TOC frames use five different tools of the TOC Thinking Process tools (TPs) and TOC five focusing steps (5FS). TOC identifies a significant number of root causes of the situation and clarifies their undesired effects by analysing its current state, which indicates the under-achievement of the sector’s goals. It also addresses the implications for Egypt because of these undesirable effects and offers different solutions that when implemented could help to overcome such problems.

This study contributes theoretically to the literature in several ways. Firstly, using the multi-framing approach to study Egypt’s situation due to the GERD provides a new theoretical approach, which acknowledges and addresses the complexity of such situations. Secondly, it demonstrates how one might conduct a study of the expected risks taking different points of view through an integrated risk analysis combining different risk analysis methods to provide a fuller and more comprehensive analysis. Lastly, the researcher uses the TOC Current Reality Tree (CRT) in a non-standard way, adding a new TOC TP tool, the “Conditional Reality Tree” (Cond. RT). This tool provides the opportunity to study scenarios that are expected to become reality in the near future based on a conditional situation, rather than capturing current reality.

This study also makes methodological contributions. One of the main methodological contributions is made by contributing to the multi-framing body of knowledge through the multi-framing approach of this study. This research is also an addition to the literature of the integration of studying the expected risks regarding the Egyptian situation from different points of view. Another methodological contribution is the unique combination of frames included, in addition to the sequential use of frameworks used. This innovative methodology itself is a key contribution of the thesis. No similar study has been conducted elsewhere by using this integrated approach. Moreover, the analytical frames used provide a methodological framework for other similar disputes over shared watercourses and other natural resources. The proposed framework is considered one of the first frameworks that could be used in settling disputes over shared watercourses elsewhere.

Moreover, the study’s findings make valuable contributions to different stakeholders and decision makers who can benefit significantly from the study through its recommendations and address cause-effect relationships limiting desirable outcomes from actions taken. The researcher found that the complexity of relationships linking root causes and their undesirable effects (UDEs) of this situation was totally underestimated when compared to those highlighted by the literature. These findings were gained by applying TOC. This is the first study of its kind worldwide to address the Egyptian-Ethiopian dispute using the TOC – both the TPs and 5FS - as well as being the first time that TOC has been applied to an international water dispute.

In terms of its contribution to practice, the study suggests applicable insights from these different perspectives for Egyptian decision makers and stakeholders. An integrated framework approach is developed that makes very useful suggestions. It also provides decision makers and stakeholders with a platform for understanding the sector in order to support their decision-making process to ultimately improve its outcomes. In particular, the study makes several significant recommendations related to water practices, agricultural practices, national/governmental issues, new water resource alternatives other than the Nile, and Egypt’s international and foreign affairs.