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Using a system dynamics modelling process to determine the impact of ECAR, EBUS and etruck market penetration on carbon emissions in South Africa

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journal contribution
posted on 16.08.2021, 09:15 by NS Pillay, Alan BrentAlan Brent, JK Musango, F van Geems
The complexities that are inherent in electricity value chains are non-linear in nature and they require unconventional modelling methods, such as system dynamics. This paper provides an overview of the system dynamics method applied for obtaining an understanding of the impact of electric-bus, -car, and -truck market penetration on carbon emissions in South Africa, through the development of the electric mobility simulator (eMobiSim). Two scenarios were tested. The World Reference scenario was based on a market penetration of 22% eCars, 19% eTrucks, and 80% eBuses and the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) scenario was based on 2.38% eCars, 1.79% eTrucks, and 12% eBuses. The results indicate that the World Reference scenario is the most optimistic, with a 12.33% decrease in carbon emissions in the transport sector and an increase of 4.32% in the electricity sector. However, if the economic structure that is specific to South Africa is to be considered and the GDP scenario is run, then there would only be a 1.77% decrease of carbon emissions in the transport sector and an increase of 0.64% in the electricity sector. Although the eCar market penetration produces the highest reduction in carbon emissions, the volumes that are required are large and other factors, such as price parity and affordability in the various income deciles, would have to be considered in determining whether this volume is achievable.

History

Preferred citation

Pillay, N. S., Brent, A. C., Musango, J. K. & van Geems, F. (2020). Using a system dynamics modelling process to determine the impact of ECAR, EBUS and etruck market penetration on carbon emissions in South Africa. Energies, 13(3), 575-575. https://doi.org/10.3390/en13030575

Journal title

Energies

Volume

13

Issue

3

Publication date

01/01/2020

Pagination

575-575

Publisher

MDPI AG

Publication status

Published

Online publication date

25/01/2020

ISSN

1996-1073

eISSN

1996-1073

Article number

ARTN 575

Language

en