Quantifying uncertainty in aggregated climate change risk assessments
journal contribution
posted on 2021-12-14, 23:47authored byLuke Harrington, Carl-Friedrich Schleussner, Friederike EL Otto
AbstractHigh-level assessments of climate change impacts aggregate multiple perils into a common framework. This requires incorporating multiple dimensions of uncertainty. Here we propose a methodology to transparently assess these uncertainties within the ‘Reasons for Concern’ framework, using extreme heat as a case study. We quantitatively discriminate multiple dimensions of uncertainty, including future vulnerability and exposure to changing climate hazards. High risks from extreme heat materialise after 1.5–2 °C and very high risks between 2–3.5 °C of warming. Risks emerge earlier if global assessments were based on national risk thresholds, underscoring the need for stringent mitigation to limit future extreme heat risks.
History
Preferred citation
Harrington, L. J., Schleussner, C. -F. & Otto, F. E. L. (2021). Quantifying uncertainty in aggregated climate change risk assessments. Nature Communications, 12(1), 7140-. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-021-27491-2