File(s) stored somewhere else
Please note: Linked content is NOT stored on Open Access Te Herenga Waka-Victoria University of Wellington and we can't guarantee its availability, quality, security or accept any liability.
Quantifying uncertainty in aggregated climate change risk assessments
journal contributionposted on 2021-12-14, 23:47 authored by Luke Harrington, Carl-Friedrich Schleussner, Friederike EL Otto
AbstractHigh-level assessments of climate change impacts aggregate multiple perils into a common framework. This requires incorporating multiple dimensions of uncertainty. Here we propose a methodology to transparently assess these uncertainties within the ‘Reasons for Concern’ framework, using extreme heat as a case study. We quantitatively discriminate multiple dimensions of uncertainty, including future vulnerability and exposure to changing climate hazards. High risks from extreme heat materialise after 1.5–2 °C and very high risks between 2–3.5 °C of warming. Risks emerge earlier if global assessments were based on national risk thresholds, underscoring the need for stringent mitigation to limit future extreme heat risks.