Lawrence J_Applying principles of Uncertainity.pdf (3.36 MB)

Applying principles of uncertainty within coastal hazard assessments to better support coastal adaptation

Download (3.36 MB)
journal contribution
posted on 01.04.2021, 04:44 by SA Stephens, RG Bell, Judith Lawrence
© 2017 by the authors. Coastal hazards result from erosion of the shore, or flooding of low-elevation land when storm surges combine with high tides and/or large waves. Future sea-level rise will greatly increase the frequency and depth of coastal flooding and will exacerbate erosion and raise groundwater levels, forcing vulnerable communities to adapt. Communities, local councils and infrastructure operators will need to decide when and how to adapt. The process of decision making using adaptive pathways approaches, is now being applied internationally to plan for adaptation over time by anticipating tipping points in the future when planning objectives are no longer being met. This process requires risk and uncertainty considerations to be transparent in the scenarios used in adaptive planning. We outline a framework for uncertainty identification and management within coastal hazard assessments. The framework provides a logical flow from the land use situation, to the related level of uncertainty as determined by the situation, to which hazard scenarios to model, to the complexity level of hazard modeling required, and to the possible decision type. Traditionally, coastal flood hazard maps show inundated areas only. We present enhanced maps of flooding depth and frequency which clearly show the degree of hazard exposure, where that exposure occurs, and how the exposure changes with sea-level rise, to better inform adaptive planning processes. The new uncertainty framework and mapping techniques can better inform identification of trigger points for adaptation pathways planning and their expected time range, compared to traditional coastal flooding hazard assessments.

History

Preferred citation

Stephens, S. A., Bell, R. G. & Lawrence, J. (2017). Applying principles of uncertainty within coastal hazard assessments to better support coastal adaptation. Journal of Marine Science and Engineering, 5(3), 40-40. https://doi.org/10.3390/jmse5030040

Journal title

Journal of Marine Science and Engineering

Volume

5

Issue

3

Publication date

01/09/2017

Pagination

40-40

Publisher

MDPI AG

Publication status

Published

Online publication date

29/08/2017

ISSN

2077-1312

eISSN

2077-1312

Article number

ARTN 40

Language

en