Control Theory and System Dynamics Simulations of Electric Vehicle Market Penetration in South Africa

Economic development shares interdependence with energy investment, a complex interaction of systems. Thus, advanced modelling tools are required to support the development of strategic integrated energy plans, inclusive of the technological complexities in the electricity value chain. This paper looks at a system dynamics modelling approach with elements of control systems engineering to determine the impact of the electric vehicle (EV) technology market penetration on the electricity demand profile and the related environmental impact in the energy and transport sectors in South Africa. Results indicate that the approach provided a robust framework in which to design the model and conduct sensitivity analyses of additional EVs entering the system due to the feedback loops inherent in the system structure.